The South West needs to build almost 600,000 new homes in 15 years to meet the needs of the region’s 2040 population, research by socio-economic experts at Marrons has revealed.
Following the government’s adoption of a new standard method for determining minimum housing need, the overall annual target for local authorities in the region has risen to 39,992 dwellings per annum – a 42% increase.
Despite a 12% decrease in its local housing need under the new formula, Bristol still needs to deliver 2,986 homes annually. This is in addition to an existing unmet need of 10,500 dwellings. In neighbouring Bath and North East Somerset, the local housing need has more than doubled to 1,471 properties a year.
Craig Pettit, planning director at Marrons in Bristol, said:
“While the decrease in Bristol’s local housing need might seem like a positive shift, we must not lose sight of the larger challenge – the city still faces an unmet need of 10,500 homes a year.
“The increase in the South West’s local housing need presents a much larger problem. Local authorities in the region will need to dramatically scale up housing delivery to meet these new targets. For example, Bath and North East Somerset is now required to provide more than two-and-a-half times its net annual completions over the past three years.
“It is imperative the region works collectively to deliver housing at unprecedented levels and at a pace that track records suggest has not been achieved previously. The scale of development required demands collaboration through bodies like the West of England Combined Authority to ensure we can meet future demands collectively.”
Utilising the latest Office for National Statistics Census data (2021) and 2018-based population projections, Marrons has painted a clear picture of England’s housing needs in 2040. Supplementing this is data from local authority housing registers, affordable housing stock records and extrapolated housing requirement figures using the government’s newly-adopted standard method.
Overall, the South West’s population is expected to grow by 11% to more than 5.3 million. Plymouth’s social housing stock is estimated to have plummeted by almost 4,000 by 2040 and the city is also forecasted to see the greatest surge in its student-age population (22%).
South Gloucestershire is expected to see the largest uptick in its first-time buyer demographic (16%), while Swindon is anticipated to witness the most substantial increase in those aged 66 and over, with a projected rise of 50% by 2040 – the joint highest in England alongside North Northamptonshire.
Dan Usher, economics director at Marrons, who specialises in housing need evidence, said:
“England is poised for significant demographic change over the next 15 years, bringing forth new challenges and opportunities in the housing sector.
“In examining the data, it becomes evident there is a significant need for general market homes to accommodate the growing population. As well as meeting this basic need, more could be done to provide greater choice and acknowledge the positive impact of specialist and affordable homes as part of a functioning housing market, much of which can be facilitated through market-led development at scale.
“Already, England has been named as the most difficult place to find a home in the developed world, and our ageing population and rising property prices will only exacerbate the problem. If we are going to meet the requirements of the population in 2040, we need to prioritise future residents and start building the right homes today.”
https://marrons.co.uk/