The latest monthly report from the CBI showed that manufacturing firms are reporting that order books were robust in August, while expectations for selling prices picked up, according to the organisation’s latest monthly Industrial Trends Survey.
The survey of 432 manufacturers found that total order books and export order books were strong in August. The firming in export orders relative to the previous month reflected rising orders in 10 of the 17 manufacturing sub-sectors, led by mechanical engineering and aerospace.
The employers’ organisation also said that particularly strong performances by the food, drink, tobacco and chemicals industries had spearheaded a pick-up in orders in 13 of the 17 industrial sub-sectors tracked each month.
As a result, the balance of companies reporting that order books were above normal rose from +9 percentage points in May to +16 points in June – the highest since the height of the late 1980s boom in August 1988. The balance for export orders rose from +10 points to +13 points – the joint highest in 22 years.
Output growth remained strong and broad based and is expected to remain so over the next quarter. Meanwhile, firms’ expectations for output price inflation picked up again after having eased briefly. However, they remained lower than in the first half of 2017.
Anna Leach, CBI Head of Economic Intelligence, said: “There are further signs that exporters are feeling the benefit from the lower pound in this month’s figures, and output growth is expected to power on over the coming quarter.
“But after a brief pause last month, expectations for selling prices have rebounded, indicating that the squeeze on consumers is set to persist. We expect the CPI (Consumer Price Index) to top out at around 3% towards the end of this year and remain close to that level during 2018, as the effect of the weak pound continues to feed through.”
Stocks were considered to be just above adequate levels, after dipping below in July, but remained below the long-run average.
However, the CBI warned that manufacturers were still being affected by rising prices. The balance of companies expecting prices to rise in the coming months remained unchanged at +23 points between May and June, but was up from +1 point a year ago.
Rain Newton-Smith, the CBI’s Chief Economist, said: “Britain’s manufacturers are continuing to see demand for ‘Made in Britain’ goods rise with the temperature. Both total and export order books are at highs not seen for decades, and output growth remains robust. “Nevertheless, with cost pressures remaining elevated, it’s no surprise to see that manufacturers continue to have high expectations for the prices they plan to charge.
“To build the right future for Britain’s economy, manufacturers and workers, the government must put the economy first as it negotiates the country’s departure from the EU. This approach will deliver a deal that supports growth and raises living standards across the UK.”
Key findings:
- 30% of manufacturers reported total order books to be above normal, and 17% said they were below normal, giving a balance of +13% - above the long-run average of -14%
- 22% of firms said their export order books were above normal, and 10% said they were below normal, giving a rounded balance of +11% - well above the long-run average of -19%
- 42% of businesses said the volume of output over the past three months was up, and 12% said it was down, giving a balance of +30% - above the long-run average of +3%
- Manufacturers expect output to grow at the same robust pace in the coming quarter, with 38% predicting growth, and 7% a decline, giving a rounded balance of +30% - above the long-run average of +8%
- Expectations for growth in average selling prices for the coming three months were higher in August (+19%) than they were in the month before (+9%) – above the long-run average of +2%
- 15% of firms said their present stocks of finished goods are more than adequate, whilst 11% said they were less than adequate, giving a balance of +4% – below the long-run average (+13%).
The survey was conducted between 26th July and 11th August 2017.